We're going to win Twins

The Twins have won seven of their last nine and are coming off a 13-1 rip job last night. We couldn't help ourselves, so we called for a roundtable. The usual suspects showed up: Q, Dogg, Fuzz and Marx. Whiskey and some of Jason Castro's wacky tobaccy were present. Read on for strong thoughts on Carlos "Go-Go" Gomez, "Tricky Nicky" Punto, Joe "the wild & crazy" Mauer, and our young "gritty" pitching staff. Touch 'em all!

Q: A quote from the Star Tribune about last night's cycle by Gomez (the first by a Twin since Puck in ‘86 by the way):

Gomez said he’s keeping as many mementos from the game as he can: a ball, bat, etc. I told him the Hall of Fame might be calling, asking him to send something to Cooperstown.

“No, not Cooperstown, my home,” he said, flashing a big smile. “I don’t know. It’s mine. I work hard for this.”
Asked him about that lightning fast home run trot, and he said, “The game today started too late. I say, ‘Let me run the bases quick so the game goes fast.’ ”

He sounds like a 3 year old when he talks, but I get a laugh out of it every time. He did sprint around the bases too. That was awesome.


Fuzz: Gomez is the most exciting player to watch on our whole team and it's not even close. In the dugout after he hit for the cycle, he looked like a kid on Christmas morning. He was beaming and I loved it. You forget sometimes that these players are playing a game they love. The millions of dollars hide the fact that this is still a game and they got into baseball because it was their passion. I found that scene with him sitting in the dugout really refreshing because you don't see that much anymore.

Marx: C'mon, Gomez is exciting but Morneau is still the must watch at-bat if you had to choose one. We were seriously talking about how overmatched he looked less than a month ago and how he was killing us at the top of the lineup. He is going to go through ridiculous swings all season, but he is fun to watch when he is running well and anytime he gets on first base.

Q: Gomez is definitely the most exciting player on the team. He's the most exciting player the Twins have had since Puckett was first starting out--maybe more. I think my favorite part of the cycle was his reaction at first base. He knew he beat the throw and immediately was checking the scoreboard to see if the scorer was going to call it a hit. You could see him talking to Jerry White about it and waiting for the official determination. Once it was official, he was grinning ear to ear. Normally I'm against players going for stats. I don't like it when they know exactly what they are hitting because I feel like it negatively affects their play and their approach to the game. But this was a different, acceptable scenario for me. I have no problem with a guy knowing he's one hit away from a cycle and going for it, especially in a lopsided game like last night. It's like the Mets game earlier in the week when Jose Reyes was an HR away from the cycle, ripped a ball off the wall, and tried to make it all the way home. He was out by a mile, but they were up big at the time and it was worth a shot. That's just fun baseball.

Fuzz: You could even put Mauer in that conversation. Mauer and exciting don't often go together but he's on fire right now. He's easily the toughest out we have and seems to have found his rhythm from two years ago. However, I'd still take Gomez under the most exciting player to watch category. You never know what this guy will do. He sprints around the bases on a bomb last night, which you never see. He has amazing head first dives that carry him farther than anyone I've ever seen. That obviously has to do with his speed, but he jumps 15 feet out and has a hard time holding on to the base on the far end. He's a show every time he plays.


Q: Please do not call Joe Mauer "exciting". He's an extremely talented baseball player and is hitting the ball very well right now, but nothing he does is exciting. If bloop singles and 4-3 groundouts get you going, then I'm sorry you lead such a boring life.

Fuzz: What's your deal with Mauer, Q? You one of those haters? You probably get sick of the kid glove treatment he gets but take that away for a second and look at his stats and look what he's done for us.

He's first on our team in average (.337), first in doubles (did you know that?), third in RBI's (did you think he was that high?), first in OBP (by a long shot), hardly strike's out and walks a ton. Is that not exciting for you? Are you not entertained!?!?!?! (That’s my inner Maximus right there).

Yeah, maybe he doesn't make you soil your pants but the way he plays so soundly and so easily is exciting to me. He also has a pistol behind the plate, which IS exciting as hell. He's not a great interview but his play speaks for itself. He doesn't need to hit homeruns and triples for me--I'm cool with him doing what he does. Should he be hitting in the 2-hole? Probably. But, that's Gardy's deal...

Dogg: Mauer is a great baseball player. You can call him whatever name you want to call him, describe his play however you want but the kid knows how to play baseball. He does everything right on the field and keeps to himself but competes hard every day. I hate when MN fans treat him like JC because he’s not. He’s going to hit for good average but he doesn’t deserve a hand job each time he comes up to the plate like Bonds would. Take him for what it is and that is somebody who will show up and do their job well each day. All-star? Maybe, but lets just take his good for what it is and that is being a solid defensive catcher and a very good hitter.

Q: "He's an extremely talented baseball player and is hitting the ball very well right now"--word for word what I said. I'm definitely not a hater, and those stats are great Aaron, but none of that makes him an EXCITING player. You can be good, hell very good, at what you do and not be exciting. It's not a knock on him as a player, that's just who he is (or isn't in this case). I'm definitely not one of those guys who thinks he's overrated or wants to move him to 3B (worst idea that get tossed around much more often than it should), I just don't find his style of play exciting, and that's what we were talking about.


Fuzz: I read what you wrote, but thanks for mentioning it again in case the readers are retards and didn't pick that up the first time. I understand your assessment, but getting hits all the time, throwing guys out regularly and making the pitchers work every at bat is exciting baseball. Gomez is still the guy in this category but I think Mauer still deserves a mention. You obviously don't.

Dogg: Back to Gomez's night last night, the cycle is so meaningless and the most overrated achievement in the history of baseball. It is a cool thing to shoot for though as a player especially when the score is out of hand like last night. It’s one of those “fun” aspects of the game that every player kind of wishes for in their careers. Most fans will remember which game you hit for the cycle because everybody makes a huge deal out of it. It’s kind of absurd to me that it’s such a big deal but whatever, Gomez accomplished it and looked as happy as I was the first time I saw porn.

I believe Gomez has also shut his critics up for the most part in the past 2-3 weeks. Many critics were begging for him to get demoted to the minors but we here at TK were telling you fans to wait, be patient. He’s just a kid and taking some lumps will help most athletes out. This kid is confident as it comes at all times and those type of players usually find ways out of slumps, which he has. He is atop the leaders in steals and has pushed his average to the .280 mark. When he goes, the Twins go. I have completely forgotten about Johan Santana already!

Q: Why do you think the cycle is overrated? I feel like it is kind of underrated. It shows a true balance in your hitting. To have the speed to leg out a triple plus the power to poke one out is not an easy feat to accomplish in one game. When you add in the fact that you also need two more hits, one of which being a double, that seems like kind of a big deal to me. And I know we don't haven't had the most prolific lineups over the years, but when your franchise goes 22 years in between this being accomplished, I'd say it's a big deal.

Dogg: Well, Q, I thought you were a great baseball mind but not after those “hitting for the cycle” comments. You really think that is a huge accomplishment? Did you really see how Gomez got some of those hits? His bomb and triple were the only legit hits he had all night. Hitting for the cycle usually takes complete luck which makes it irrelevant for me and I believe most baseball fans. Yeah it’s a fun thing to accomplish but that is about all it is to me. Quit getting hard over the frickin cycle.

Fuzz: Ok, gentleman calm down like Mike Tice says. How about our friend Nick Punto this year? He's baaaacckkk! Kidding, but I do love his new role.


Q: Punto...where do I begin. Ok, let me first say that he had a huge double to drive in a couple runs last night. I'll give him credit for that. Now (you knew this was happening), I have two issues with Nicky from last night's game. First is the triple he hit in the 9th. A) it was a meaningless hit because we were already ahead by so much, and B) anyone else on the team (except Gomez) would have stopped at second because we were playing station-to-station baseball at that point, trying to not show up the White Sox. Not Captain Hustle, though. The other MAJOR issue I have is his botched sacrifice bunt attempt. Anyone who follows the Twins should know by now that Little Nicky isn't a great bunter (which is ridiculous for a slap-hitting utility player), but he reached new territory in his futility last night. With runners on first and second and nobody out, Punto managed to bunt into a 2-5-3 double play. Outstanding. What's even better is that Crede got taken out by the slide at 3 and had no intentions on throwing to 1. But then he saw our hero still standing at the plate bitching, and made the nice, easy throw over to get the second out. Punto will be starting soon, I promise you that. But that doesn't mean he doesn't suck anymore, as he proved last night.

Dogg: About Punto, he’s been a nice role player for us this year. The sad part is that he might become our everyday SS, which I don’t like at all. Yeah, he’s great on defense but he’s not an everyday player. I don’t know if Tolbert is an everyday player yet either and Everett sure hasn’t shown us shit besides his noodle arm. If “Tricky Nicky” can hover around .250 and actually get his sac bunts down, then yes, he can be an everyday player but that is yet to be determined. He’s playing well enough now to warrant an everyday position and has the Twins in 1st place once again.

Marx: I agree on Everett. He was supposed to be a gold glove caliber SS, but he looks like Rondell White when he throws. It very well could be because of the injury, but if he can't play defense he's worthless. He also hits like Rondell did for the Twins so that’s not a good combo.

Q: Good call Nic. I think I read today that Lamb is hitting around .205 and Everett at roughly .170--so much for reshaping the left side of our infield this off-season. That's going to mean a lot of Tolbert (a good thing) and Punto (a terrible thing).

Fuzz: Question- Are you guys nervous about our rotation? It's still full of a bunch of young guys that haven't proved shit yet they are hanging right now. Is this going to last?


Q: I think our pitching staff will be just fine. We've already dealt with injuries to 3 different starters and we haven't flinched. Sure, they'll get touched up occasionally, but most pitchers do. We were spoiled by having Santana here for as long as we did. Most MLB clubs not from Boston or New York have staffs that are very similar to ours. When you pitch well for the first couple weeks, you could call it a fluke. As we approach the middle and end of May, I think it becomes something that you can rely on and expect. As long as our bats don't go cold for long stretches, we'll stay in contention thanks to our pitching staff, starters and relievers.

Fuzz: On the pitching front, I am nervous. Will Livan hold this up? I've been dead wrong about him so far, so I hope he keeps proving me wrong, because he's been a pleasure at the top of the rotation. We have dealt with injuries by announcing that we brought guys up but they haven't pitched yet. I don't think that's been dealt with at all. We have no idea how Slowey and Perkins are going to pitch. They have both proved in the league so far that they both need work. What if they suck? That's two spots we will need to worry about. Not to mention that Bonser gave up 6 runs in the first inning the other day showing he's not all there yet either. I'm not resting comfortably with these guys. Not yet.

Q: As far as the pitching goes, I think we have dealt with our injuries well. Guys have pitched on shorter rest, our bullpen has stepped up, etc. That's what I meant at least. True, we don't know what Perkins and Slowey will do in the rotation, but having 3 starters (including the guy who was supposed to be our front-line man in Liriano) go down and not completely falling off the map is a good sign to me. And I know Boof's first inning wasn't great the other day, but he follwed that up with 5 innings of nearly flawless pitching to keep us in the game and allowed us to make that nice comeback. Remember, Livan got touched up for 7 runs a little while ago and then came back with two stellar starts, including last night's complete game. Blackburn gave up a number of runs the other night, but only 3 were earned. If I had to describe our rotation in one word, it would be gritty. They aren't going to have dominant stuff or flashy strikeout numbers, but they get the job done well.

Dogg: I’ve liked our pitching staff since day 1 no matter who is in it because it’s young for the most part. Young kids always seem to compete harder against one another when they are all on one staff. The friends all want to be good but each one of them wants to be better than the next one which makes for great competitiveness. We’ve had some injuries but as long as Livan can stay healthy and eat innings, I like this staff a lot. They all throw strikes and challenge each and every hitter no matter what your name is. Make teams hit the ball to score runs. Our defense is solid enough to make almost every play so our pitchers are doing the right thing in challenging hitters every game. Our bullpen is ridix good and doesn’t need to be talked about even though some of the relievers are struggling a little bit early.

Fuzz: After all that we heard in spring training about this being an off year, you have to be surprised/happy about the first place spot right now. I called this a straight rebuilding year on this site about a three weeks ago, so this is a pleasant surprise for me. The longer they can hold onto this good play the happier I will be. The stats don't prove it, but our lineup does seem better. I think this years team will be a better hitting team than last years team. Again, the stats don't prove this yet, but I think they get there. Another aspect that hasn't been talked about is our bench. It's 20 times what it was last year. We were bringing up Luis Rodriguez for crucial pinch hitting situations. That's absrudly bad. Out of Kubel, Lamb, Tolbert, Punto, Monroe, whoever isn't playing that day is a better options than Rodriguez, Tyner and Lew Ford. Anyways, are you guys satisfied so far?

Q: Am I satisfied? This team was picked by a ton of "experts" to finish either 4th or 5th in the Central, we lost 3 major contributors in Santana, Hunter, and Silva, we decided to give all of our young pitching prospects spots in the rotation at the same time, and we've had a pretty decent amount of injuries. Yet despite all of that we are sitting in first place (albeit in an average division right now) at the end of the first week of May. Yeah, I'd say I'm satisfied.

Dogg: I pinned us as division champs before the season started and I’m sticking with this call. These other teams are full of high-priced talent but really, who are they? They have no identity and it’s showing early in the season. Things better change quickly in this division otherwise all of them will be looking up at your very own Minnesota Twins once again. It’s like back to the year 2000 again. Everybody writes us off and we just win baseball games.


Will we see this again in September? TK is warming up to the idea...

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Picture of the Day

Q: What's the most uncomfortable thing about this picture: a) Sammy C's face, b) the trainer's face, c) the placement of the trainer's hand, or d) the fact that you keep staring at a picture of one man "stretching" another man in what seems to be an inappropriate manner?

Dogg: I know you can get “rub and tugs” in Vegas for about $150 but I didn’t know NBA trainers gave them out during games free of charge.

Fuzz: One of the funnier pictures I've seen in a long time. The trainers expression is priceless. The word on the street is that Sammy C is from the Dirk Diggler ilk so I'm sure the shit grin on his face is because he can't wait to tell his other little fruity trainer guys about this. This picture kills me.

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Quirky Living

Fellas, and to the few women that read this blog, this post is a little out of left field, so I need to explain a little before I go on. My cousin’s wife (I call her my cousin because it’s easier) also has her own blog but blogs mainly on her family. It’s a regular stop for me personally because it’s family and it’s fun looking at pictures of their kids and seeing what the Lewis family is up to. Saying that, she got involved in this little blog tagging deal where you are “required” to write six quirky things about yourself on your blog. Her friend wrote a list of quirky things and tagged her blog to do it, so she wrote hers, and then tagged this blog to do the same. Extremely girly, I know. This is what the tag line said:

I'm tagging Fuzz from TK on Toast. Even though his blog is a sports blog, I know he has some fun quirks and the boys over at TK like to add personal posts every now and again.

I think she’s talking about Cougar City with the personal post comment, which we will bring back very soon--I promise. Anyways, she’s family so I have to do this no matter how girly this is coming off. However, I thought I’d change it a little to tailor to the audience. Instead of writing just about myself, I’m going to write six quirky things about our house. If you didn’t know, the three of us clowns live together. This will give you a little better feeling of who we are and maybe understand our writing more with a few of these quirks. So as the title says, here are six “Quirky Living” things that happen at the TKOT house.

1) Dogg walks around naked. That’s a good start, right? For those that know him, this isn’t a shocker. He’s been doing it forever. He’s the Mike Redmond of the TKOT house. Probably a good time to mention that he’s the only guy with a girlfriend. The whole walking around stark naked hasn’t been as frequent as it once was, but he still catches you off guard every now and again.

For example: I was on the computer (I was sitting down, which is a big factor in this story) and I was talking to a friend about weekend plans or something. I was completely distracted from playing around on the computer and talking on the phone at the same time that I didn’t hear Dogg walk up. Bad move. Out of the corner of my eye, I see someone’s silhouette so I glance over and there is Dogg butt ass naked standing three feet from me. Three feet! With his “business” at eye level. I think I dropped the phone and washed my eyes out with gasoline for the next hour. It’s never a good day when you see another man’s twig & berries at a close range. Never.

2) The three of us sit in the exact same spots in the living room. Q on the big sofa. Dogg on the love seat and I’m on the sofa chair. This is not once in a while--this is every time. It’s like the teacher put us in a seating chart and hasn’t changed it yet. In this same living room is where we obviously watch TV. We have a few shows that we have to watch together and we stay pretty loyal to this. No matter the schedules, we need to watch them together. This is where Tivo is a godsend.

3) Q has Narcolepsy. Ok, he doesn’t really, but he “conks” as we call it, on cue. You’ll be in the middle of an active conversation and then leave for a minute and come back and he’s out. Dogg & I will continue the conversation and 15 minutes later he’ll jump in with a comment like he’s awakening from the dead. He acts like nothing happened. I’m used to it now but it freaked the shit out of me the first couple times. I didn’t know what to do when he’s talking to me one second and the next second his eyes are shut and I’m talking to a dude in a coma. To his defense, Q gets up waaaay earlier than we do.


4) I pay too much for a haircut. I’ll admit this. Q always asks me how my salon day and Mani’s & Pedi’s went when I walk in from a haircut. To set the record straight, this is completely false. No Mani’s and Pedi’s for this fella, but the blond locks do get some extra care and I’m not apologizing for this. I’m just not.

5) For most of the winter, Dogg sleeps on the floor in the upstairs living room. His room is downstairs. I think it has to do that it’s like a meat locker downstairs during the winter months, but we have a ton of extra blankets. Doesn’t matter. He sleeps on the living room floor like a bum on the street. I don’t think this is normal.


6) A few random stuff: The three of us have never gone out to eat together or made the same dinner for the three of us but we’ve gone out for drinks together plenty of times...Dogg makes up his own nicknames and tries to make them stick. They don’t...I’m obsessed with my laptop. I’m always on it and it’s a little sickening...Q & Dogg love convenience store runs...I run with a bandana on (it’s the Crips colors. You wanted to know this)...In the summer, we make a Dairy Queen run once a week...At least once a week I drive down the street only to turn around and make sure I shut the garage door…we all workout pretty regularly but never together...I’m a weak beer drinker (Q & Dogg are not), Dogg is a weak whiskey drinker (Q & I are not) and Q doesn’t take Goldschlager shots (Dogg & I do)…I have to eat breakfast...Dogg’s a nightowl...Q will try any new drink...and finally, we watch a lot of sports (this isn’t a quirk, but we do watch a lot. Hence the sports blog).

Alright, that’s it. I don’t know a ton of people that blog, but my cousin Nick has a personal website/blog and told me he reads TKOT once in a while. So, if you’re out there Nick, I guess this is my tag to you and the end of my “requirement.” Kidding, it was actually kind of fun...

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Voices from a Stranger--Derby Recap

Hill is back for a Kentucky Derby recap. It was an eventful & festive day out at Cantebury and Hill discusses all the action. Krebs also comes late with his thoughts. Rrrrrrrrracing.

After hours and hours of tireless research on the horses racing in the derby, the favorite, BIG BROWN, came out on top. The 5-2 favorite took care of business and showed the world what he is made of and left no questions. He got out to a great start from the questionable number 20 gate position to claim to the prize on Saturday and set up the possibility for the Triple Crown to be won in 2008 by Big Brown and Trainer Rick Dutrow. With the win, Big Brown has now earned over 2 million dollars in 4 wins, not too bad and puts him far and away above the rest of the competition. I, for one can not wait until the 17th when the Preakness (2nd of 3 races in the Triple Crown) from Pimlico Park is held to watch Big Brown dominate again.

Big Brown

While the excitement from the win was still fresh on eveyone's mind there was a tragic event that unfolded. Eight Belles, the lone filly in the race, who had race a strong showing finishing in second to Big Brown had to be euthenized after a freak injury occurred. Eight Belles in the final home stretch of the race, broke both of her front ankles, which for a horse is a life threating injury. Instead of putting her through the suffering and agony it was decided that she should be put to rest. REST IN PEACE Eight Belles you gave the boys a run for their money.

Rounding out the top three this weekend was Dennis of Cork racing out of the 16th position. I will be the first to admit that I put this horse on my "not a chance" list, boy was that a bad idea. After researching and reading, the general consensus was that DOC was a bit edgy and that the huge crowds and atmosphere at Churchill downs could put this horse over the top and he would be too stimulated to run a good race. To me it looked trainer Calvin Borel was able to channel the excitement into a perfectly run race for Dennis of Cork who did not get ahead of himself or out of control at any time during the Derby.

Final results
Win- Big Brown (paid $6.80 (win bet), $5.00 (place bet), $4.00 (show bet))
Place- Eight Belles (paid $10.60 (place bet), $6.40 (show bet))
Show- Dennis of Cork (paid $11.60 (show bet))

Others (in order of finish):
Tale of Ekati
Recapturetheglory
Colonel John
Anak Nakal
Pyro
Cowboy Cal
Z Fortune
Smooth Air
Visionaire
Court Vision
Z Humor
Cool Coal Man
Bob Black Jack
Gayego
Big Truck
Adriano
Monba

My personal results from TKOT predictions

Win bet was spot on for Big Brown (but as I mentioned in the earlier post, I do not usually place win only bets) Congratulations to those of you who did (Bargs). Tri Box bet Big Brown, Gayego, Colonel John (wow was I off with this one, not even close). Tri Box bet Big Brown, Eight Belles, Smooth Air (much closer here, just goes to show that I need to stick with the Exacta bet)

My prediction for the top finisher outside of the top three favorites was for Gayego, even though I did mention that I liked Eight Belles, my thoughts on Gayego needed a bit of work.


Finally, I also went on a limb and thought that Smooth Air would perform well. I will admit that this was more of a follower pick listening to track handicapper and fellow Secret Force investing partner Kevin Gorg. Maybe the sickness that this horse had prior to the Derby was still lingering and not completely taken care of. Although, I did not leave Canterbury a rich man, I still loved every minute of the Derby. As we stated, this was a race that could have been won by any horse and the place and show horse showed just that.

At the days end a total of $114,557,364 in on-track and off-track wagers were placed on the Derby. I personally only made a bit of change thanks to the last minute win-place-show bet that I placed on Eight Belles, all other bets including Exactas and Trifectas came up a bit short.

There were over 150,000 people in attendance at Churchill Downs to witness the Derby and on NBC it looked as if the infield was crazier than ever, just another reason why the Derby is so great.

Closer to home, Canterbury Park attendance was at an all time high, thanks to the Derby and a very welcome, beautiful morning. 18,000 fans packed into Canterbury a welcome sight for those of us who were anxiously anticipating the 2008 racing season. There was a bit of everything happening at the track yesterday with all the different people you just never know what you are going to see or hear. I highly recommend coming out to the park on a weekend and experience it all for yourself. Remember the Preakness is only two weeks away and will be just as exciting as the Derby, well almost...........

*Side Notes
-Final Miller Lite count for the table was 31!! (this was for all of us at the table, our waitress put us all together).
-Kentucky Derby day is the most crowded day at Canterbury, get there early and get ready to stand in lines.
-My new favorite bet is the Exacta (first two horses to finish) with the favorite over the field and the field over the favorite.
-Krebs and I saw into our future with a group of 4 older guys that sat next to us, I can not wait to get old so I can be loud, complain about everything, and get social security checks to use them at the track
-Canterbury Park does not have a breakfast, so if you show up by 10am do not expect to eat until lunch time.
-A Mint Julip is not the best thing in the world, but it is also not the worst, I will stick with the Miller's.
-I love teaching people new ways to wager at the track, and if anyone ever wants some advice, just ask, even though I might not be right.
-I can not wait to see Secret Force race, but I am both nervous and excited, I just hope that he can perform to the standards that we are all expecting.

Krebs' Thoughts:

I ended up contributing about $78 to the derby pool (more on that later), but I'm glad to have helped Hill win some money, even if it meant that a horse had to die to do so. Hope you can sleep at night, maybe drop some change at McDonald's so you don't mess up your karma. In addition to my contribution to the money pool, I'm pretty sure that between our table, we put our waitress through another semester of college. Beer wise, I think I tallied 6 tall Miller Lites by post time but hammered one more that I didn't need before the day was over. I did manage to make some decent money on a Canterbury race, which I promptly used to make additional derby bets. My main bets were on COLONEL JOHN and PYRO to win with a host of other horses including Z FORTUNE, BOB BLACK JACK, GAYEGO (finished dead last...no pun intended EIGHT BELLES, R.I.P.). I did make some additional trifectas with BIG BROWN boxed but I didn't include EIGHT BELLES or DENIS OF CORK in any of my bets.

Even though I didn't get lucky on my derby bets, all-in-all, it was a very successful day in terms of fun to be had. Highlights for me were the conversations of about four 80 year old men at the table next to us, seeing the horses in person for the first time since Labor Day, taking in the ladies that get all dressed up for the day, and the dance party ride to Bumpers after the races. BIG BROWN proved to me that he will win the Triple Crown and I will be back in two weeks to watch the Preakness and hopefully SECRET FORCE very soon.

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Voices from a Stranger

As promised, here is another installment of "Voices from a Stranger." As you know, this is written by a reader and not the three TKOT writers. If you'd like to write a piece for the blog, shoot us an email at tkontoast@gmail.com. Anyways, here is a Kentucky Derby preview by two dear friends of TKOT. We've seen these guys do everything from passing out in closets, move things five feet and smoke a lot of cigarettes. Let's roll!

Kentucky Derby

For some of us, this Saturday is the biggest day of the year. Now that we are getting older and it’s no longer considered appropriate to grab a twelve pack and heckle the girls on Freshman Move-in day (well, nobody should speak on Dogg’s behalf I guess), we might as well dust off the seersucker suit, spin up a mint julep (recipe to follow) and take in the scenery of gorgeous babes in crazy hats. That’s right, it’s Kentucky Derby Day. You don’t have to be a degenerate gambler or make a road trip to Louisville to enjoy this great day. Our friends at TKOT have invited the namesake founders of HK Stables to provide exclusive pre and post-race coverage of the 134th Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs. Enjoy, because this research took a lot longer than the 2 minutes it takes to run the race.

Breakdown:

BIG BROWN - His name may sound like a porno movie you watched last weekend but this beast is going off as the morning line favorite at 3-1 thanks to an injury to the early favorite, War Pass. Big Brown’s track record is short but impressive, going undefeated in 3 races and routing the competition at every step of the way. BIG BROWN is trained by Richard Dutrow, Jr. who has had an impressive year, fielding two winners in Dubai the same day BIG BROWN won the Grade I Florida Derby.

Big Brown

COLONEL JOHN - This is another horse that will be taking a lot of money come post time with morning line odds of 4-1. Jack has never finished out of the top two in his 6 races and came back from a bad start to eek out the win in the Santa Anita Derby (Grade I) beating fellow derby horse Bob Black Jack (20-1) and a month earlier won a another close one at Santa Anita in the Sham. Churchill Downs is a lot different than the synthetic surface he’s used to running on but word from the barn is that he’s taking to the dirt well.

PYRO – The smart money is hoping that this horse’s fire didn’t go out after an awful 10th place finish in the Toyota Blue Grass stakes at Keeneland. If you’re ready to call it a mulligan, make the wager at 6-1. One connection not to count out is trainer Steve Asmussen who trained last year’s Preakness and Breeder’s Cup Classic winner, CURLIN. CURLIN made the trip with PYRO and is not doubt giving his stable mate a few words of advice...if that’s possible for a horse.

GAYEGO – It’s pronounced ga.ye'go, not gay ego, but don’t stop your buddy who is still in the closest from betting this out of pride because he might buy a couple rounds of appletinis for “the guys” if the 15-1 odds hold on race day. GAYEGO is another horse that is used to the polytrack but proved he can run on the real dirt by managing to fend off a hard charging Z FORTUNE (15-1) in the Arkansas Derby. He may have to dig deep to cross the line first in this 1 ¼ mile race since he’s used to the shorter distance.

GayBoy...I mean Gayego

MONBA – While his history may be slightly checkered with a 12th place finish in the Fountain of Youth (Grade III), he bounced back masterfully by winning the Toyota Blue Grass. His past is certainly checkered but a win at Churchill late last year proves he can be a solid contender. He’s trained by Todd Pletcher, who trained nearly a third of the field in last year’s derby, but out of his six horses, the best finisher came in 6th. MONBA is Pletcher’s best chance to pull a rabbit out the hat in the 134th. MONBA goes off at 15-1.

Z FORTUNE – This pony might not have what it takes to win but you might consider using him in your exactas or trifectas with his 15-1 morning line. Z Money made a hard charge towards the end of the Arkansas Derby but simply ran out of track. Also trained by Steve Asmussen, Z FORTUNE might be looking to show up his more favored stable mate, PYRO.

EIGHT BELLES – As the only Philly in a field of boys, she may have tough ride ahead of her. There have only been three females to win this event in its prestigious history. The history may be imposing but EIGHT BELLES is looking to silence the critics. If your feminist, liberal friends need some money to save the world, tell them to place $20 to win on this 15-1 starter.

Our feminist friends

TALE OF EKATI – This colt beat the early derby favorite WAR PASS in the Wood Memorial but it is widely rumored that WAR PASS was injured during the race. The smart money was unimpressed with the final time of the Wood, and unfortunately for TALE OF EKATI, recent history isn’t much more impressive, evidenced in the 15-1 price.

BIG TRUCK – If you are looking to piss into the wind, place a few bucks on this beast and ask God’s forgiveness. At 50-1, you’d better put a little in the collection plate if BIG TRUCK pulls off a miracle mile and a quarter; then head to Vegas and put the rest on the Washington Nationals to win the World Series (150-1 current odds).

Other Entries

COURT VISION 20-1

COOL COAL MAN 20-1

VISIONAIRE 20-1

SMOOTH AIR 20-1

BOB BLACK JACK 20-1

DENIS OF CORK 20-1

COWBOY CAL 20-1

RECAPTURETHEGLORY 20-1

ANAK NAKAL 30-1

Z HUMOR 30-1

ADRIANO 30-1

Mint Julep Recipe**

4 fresh mint sprigs

2 ½ oz Kentucky bourbon whiskey

1 tsp powdered sugar

2 tsp water

Muddle mint leaves, powdered sugar, and water in a collins glass. Fill the glass with shaved or crushed ice and add bourbon. Top with more ice and garnish with a mint sprig. Serve with a straw.

**serious drinkers might want to make a triple batch


Q&A with the fellas from HK Stables:

Who is your winner?

Editors note: The name Secret Force will be used often in this Q&A. Secret Force is a racehorse that is partially owned by the two gentleman who wrote this article. And you thought we were rolling out some amateurs for this piece. Please. We roll with the experts here friends.

Hill: Well, since I can not choose SECRET FORCE because a) he is too old and b) still in Tampa Bay with our new Tampa Bay Downs Trainer of the year Jamie Ness (congratulations are in order); I am going to go with BIG BROWN.

I know that this is the favorite and that is might be an easy answer, but I really believe from everything that I have seen and read, that this horse may win by at least a length and a half. All early indications are pointing that BIG BROWN has been toying with the track and that the workouts he has posted this week are just effortless gallops for him. Today (Thursday) will be the workouts to keep your eyes on; these will be the final indicators as to who may have any sort of chance against BIG BROWN.

Krebs: I agree. If it weren’t for that damn age limit, SECRET FORCE would take these ponies to the house and a big Sparks toast to Jaime and the staff at Ness Racing Stables.

I have been debating between BIG BROWN and COLONEL JOHN all week and I admit I’m still not certain. I like BIG BROWN’s trainer, Dutrow, Jr., and the fact he has eaten up the competition in his only three starts. However, we haven’t seen how he handles a pack of the best horses in the sport. I’m going with COLONEL JOHN for his longer track record and superior blood line. He was bred for endurance and siblings have had success. Plus, I have to cheer against Hill on this one, even though we do table bet from time to time.

Colonel John

Which horse outside of the top 3 do you think could win?

Hill: I personally feel that starting position is huge in the race, especially here at the Derby, when you have up to 20 horses that will be at the gates at the same time. The runners on the inside will have to get off to a quick start so as not get trapped, so I think you can not take COURT VISION or EIGHT BELLES (I do like the Filly though, more on this later). Also, the horse in the middle positions may come out hot, but will fade fast as the pack tightens and heads around the first turn; say goodbye to PYRO and SMOOTH AIR. Finally, you have the outside horses, which I really like in a race this large. These horse will need to get out quick, there is no doubt about that but I feel have more of an advantage of not getting caught up in the pack. You also, have to love that the favorite is coming from the far lane, so anyone close to him will have a mate to set a strong pace. For these reasons I am taking GAYEGO (15-1) as your long shot winner.

Krebs: I’m going to go with MONBA, Todd Pletcher’s pony in this category. He did have a bad trip in the Fountain of Youth but he came back and beat a field of 5 other Derby horses (COWBOY CAL, VISIONAIRE, COOL COAL MAN, PYRO, and BIG TRUCK) to win the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. That proves to me that he can compete with the favorites having already beat a quarter of the field, mostly mid-pack contenders. Pletcher didn’t have any luck last year but maybe he figured a couple things out.

Which of the dark horses (20-1 - 50-1) has the best chance to show?

Hill: I am going to take the same horse as Kevin Gorg and Paul Allen have been talking about on KFAN all this week; SMOOTH AIR (20-1). This horse has been dealing with a bit of sickness and had limited workouts this week. However, he now looks to be back in racing form and galloping the track well. There is just an aura around this horse, with the ups-and-downs of this whole week and everything that it has gone through, not to put him is as a contender. On another side note for this horse, if you are a big believer in Karma as I am, the owners/trainers for SMOOTH AIR supported the Make-a-Wish foundation this week, bringing two sick children out to Churchill Downs this week to spend some time with the horse......that's enough for me to put some money on this pony.

The midget Smooth Air on the left

Krebs: I like BOB BLACK JACK (20-1). I’m sticking with horses that have proven against competition and this colt nearly beat COLONEL JOHN, my favorite, in the Santa Anita Derby. If I believe that COLONEL JOHN is the one to beat, the one who nearly beat him has a legitimate shot as well. His experience has been mainly out West, this horse must be loving the Kentucky country air after breathing that smog and dealing with hippies.

How are you planning on wagering (just a few of the 50 or so bets you'll probably make)?

Hill: This is a tough question for me, as many of you loyal readers know, I like to cover many different options during a race. There is something about putting everything on one hose that I just do not like to do, there are just too many variables.

With that said, here is what I am thinking as of today, but I guarantee this will change by Saturday, I do not make any final decision until I see the horses in the paddock:

Win bet: BIG BROWN

Trifecta box: BIG BROWN, GAYEGO, COLONEL JOHN

Trifecta box: BIG BROWN, EIGHT BELLES, SMOOTH AIR (This is a pipe dream, but it would mean that I am taking A LOT of time off this summer to be at Canterbury)

Krebs: I’m a fan of the exotic bets as well but like to put a little more on one horse in big races to give me something to cheer about. I won’t guarantee I’ll bet this way either, I’ll be searching out value but here is what I’m thinking at the moment.

Win bet: COLONEL JOHN

Exacta Box: PYRO, BIG BROWN

Trifecta: COLONEL JOHN, PYRO with PYRO, BIG BROWN with Z FORTUNE, BOB BLACK JACK

For those of you who don’t understand my logic, I’m making multiple trifecta bets in one bet. I am betting either COLONEL JOHN or PYRO to win, PYRO or BIG BROWN to place, and Z FORTUNE or BOB BLACK JACK to show. If any of these combinations happens, I win. Hill and I can give a betting tutorial in another TKOT installment.

How many Miller Lites do you think you'll drink by post time?

Miller, Miller, Miller...

Hill: By post time of the Kentucky Derby (which is 5:04pm our time) I plan to have consumed the following:

-1 Canterbury Brunch Buffet

-1 Order of Nachos (or some other type of app)

-2 Cups of Coffee

-1 Mint Julep

-6 Miller Lites

Overall this is one of the best days of the year to me, I look forward to it and the anticipation build up is so much fun. Do not be afraid to go out on a limb for the Derby, this is the one time of the year that I feel that almost any horse has a shot, you just never know how they will react in front of 16,000 fans. Good luck, Have fun and as always MAY THE (secret) FORCE BE WITH YOU.

See you at the Track!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Krebs: The odds are better for BIG TRUCK to win the Derby than for Hill to have only 6 tall Miller Lites by post time. Over/under is set at eight. Myself, I’ll probably have about 5 but that will entirely depend on how much I am losing, the two go hand in hand for some reason.

This is my favorite day of the year and attending the Kentucky Derby is officially on my bucket list. Hill and I will be holding down the fort at table 116 on the glass in the restaurant. Everybody is welcome to stop by, but you probably won’t be able to sit with us, seats were hard to come by so unfortunately, we have to limit seats to SECRET FORCE owners for this day. Not to worry, you’ll have many other opportunities to join us at our summer mecca.


Secret Force. Come out this summer and see this guy...

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Picture of the Day

Lenghty picture of the day comments here and "Voices from a Stranger" Kentucky Derby preview tomorrow. I've seen a glimpse of it and it looks real good.

Dogg: You usually want to get a glove on the ball at the very minimum when diving for a ball in the outfield. I’m not about to get on Carlos Gomez though like every other critic out there. He’s in his rookie season and is still a kid so can we please let him develop? He’s hitting .260 something right now and that is good for a rookie hitting leadoff and playing an above average CF. He’s got 11 SB’s and will probably end up with close to 50 swipes. The only problem I have is that he only has 2 walks compared to 26 K’s I believe which is brutal for a leadoff hitter but the guy is supposed to have some flaws in his game. If they bump him down to Triple-A at any time this season I will be very disappointed and think the organization would be making a huge mistake. If he was hitting under .200 and didn’t look like he had any confidence at the plate then maybe. But he is still strutting around the field like his shit don’t stink which tells me that he is very confident. Let him take his bumps and bruises in the bigs. Before we know it, he’ll be the starting CF in the all-star game. Mark it down “Gomez will start in the all-star game by 2010”.

Q: Has there been a more frustratring player in recent Twins history than Carlos Gomez? He looked spectacular during the first few games of the year. Then couldn't do anything right, in the field or at the plate, for a long enough stretch that there were calls for his demotion to AAA. So Gardy benches him for one game, and ever since he's been absolutely on fire (a bunch of multi-hit games and even a couple outifled assissts). I definitely don't want to send him down because of this potential that we are seeing right now. He'll be A-B all year, but hopefully this experience will pay off down the road when we get back to contention in the next couple years.

Fuzz: Gomez is a character. He probably had no right diving for this ball but did anyway. He also stole third yesterday when no sign was given. Gardy was pissed off in the papers this morning. But, he said that you can’t bottle this kid up, you have to let him just go. I love him, by the way. Anyways, the Twins are ‘hanging around’ after month number one. Detroit and Cleveland are coming on but don’t look dominant as everyone said they were going to be. The Twins and Cleveland are 6-4 in their last 10 games and Detroit is 7-3. I’ll be the first to admit, I didn’t see this coming. Even if it is only the first month, and if the Twins can hang in there, they just might have a shot. Might being the key word. You know, maybe a high 80’s or low 90’s win total takes this division. If that’s the case, the Twins could be in the race in September, which would be a nice surprise. I thought at the beginning of the season that they looked like a .500 ball club and they still look like that. However, I saw Detroit and Cleveland being a ton better. If those two teams fall down from that prediction and the Twins steal a few games late in the season, we might just shock everyone this fall!!! See what happens when the sun shines for a few days? Good Ole’ optimism comes creeping back out...

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Idol Chatter

Here's a little talk for all of you Idol fans. Maybe you admit your a fan, maybe you don't. Either way, here are thoughts on last nights performances and on where we think the show is headed.

Dogg: Who is getting booted tonight and why?

Fuzz: Simon thinks Cans (Syesha) is in trouble but I think Brooke White goes tonight. Syesha has been in the bottom three for the past month but I think she hangs on. Brooke hasn't impressed me at all in 2-3 weeks. It's time for her to go. She messed up her lyrics two weeks ago and should have been booted. Then this week, she was average. Simon called her first performance a nightmare. Plus, she's annoying as hell, so I'm sick of her.

Dogg: Syesha has been in trouble for the past 6 weeks. I don’t even remember how many times she has been in the bottom 3 and/or 2 but has lasted to the final 5. I think the bottom 2 should be Syesha and Brooke but Castro had an off night with the judges as well. He’s been losing interest of the judges but apparently not with the fans. I enjoy his O.A.R stoner-type music a lot. Brooke hasn’t had a clue the past two weeks and I thought if you mess up lyrics you are automatically tossed? Apparently not with Brooke because she had to start over while on the piano a few weeks ago and then completely botched the lyrics last week. See ya Brooke!


Who is in your top 3 right now Fuzz?

Fuzz: My top three are the fellas. Cook, Archuleta, and Castro in that order. The guys have been significantly better than the philly's this season, so having an all dude top 3 is legit. Who knows though? I think Cook and Archuleta are shoe-in's for the top 2. They are by far the best and have been since about week three. What the hell is going on with Paula? Is she seriously on crack? She started judging Castro's 2nd song last night before she sang it and called Syesha Brooke last night. She is completely off her rocker and Simon loves it. He sits there and just laughs.

Dogg: I have Archuleta, Cook and Castro in that order. I know a 17-year-old American Idol would be awfully young but his voice is the best in my mind. Cook definitely has high power potential and will do well with his music career but I believe Archuleta has the most powerful voice. He has since day 1 and has been a favorite since this contest started.

Paula was terrible last night. How the F did she think somebody sang two songs when they only had sung one when they asked of her opinion? I’ve said she’s been on drugs since this show started and believe the producers enjoy it because it has become comical. I am surprised that Seacrest hasn’t said anything to her this season especially last night. Do they just rip her after the show? Simon and her are for sure going strong in the sack and gives the show reason to keep her on screen. The show has been a major hit series since it began. If Simon leaves does the show continue to do well?

Fuzz: Barring a Daughtry like early exit shocker, David Cook is your winner. He's 25, he's been the most consistent singer and I think he IS the best singer this year. Archuleta is the only other contender but he is too young. He's only 17 and is a little retarded. In the sense in the way he handles the attention, the judges, Seacrest, etc... He's not as polished as Cook is. The best singer doesn't always win this competition though, but in the end, Cook is the artist that's going to come out on top record sales wise. That must be nice, by the way. You're 25, you were working a normal job before this show, and now you'll be a millionaire within a year or two. It's bullshit...

Dogg: If you are in the top 10 on American Idol you have a face with millions of people and that is worth a shitload these days. You will make it big time if you really want to either with music, TV, radio, etc. I know some of these singers fall off with their singing careers but can always latch onto something else with the popularity factor from this show. I agree though Fuzz that it's BS because I can do things much better than half of these tools that end up making a career because they were on American Idol.


Cook vs. Archuletta is the matchup to look for from here on out. One of these two will be your champion. Either is good for me because they are the two guys I selected when the field was limited to 24 which gives me $10 each from Q and Fuzz!

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