Friday, May 16, 2008

Voices from a Stranger--Preakness Preview

HK stables back at you again for another preview of one of the horse racing worlds Triple Crown events. This week we are taking a look at the second jewel in the crown; The Preakness from Pimlico Park in Balitmore Maryland.

CURLIN wins the 2007 Preakness

The Preakness being held on May 17th this year, has a long history, running for the first time in 1873, two years before the first Kentucky Derby. Many people will write off the Preakness as the worst of the 3 triple crown races. What it does do, is set the stage for a possible Triple Crown winner (a horse that wins all 3 Triple Crown races; Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes). Throughout the 125 year history of the Triple Crown ONLY 11 horses have accomplished the goal, and not one has done it since AFFIRMED in 1978.

Typically, the Preakness is run by the winner of the Kentucky Derby; this year Big Brown, as well as other horses that didn’t quite perform as well as they had hoped. This year however, only one other Derby contestant, Gayego, will try for another shot at Big Brown. Many people say that this is due to the fact that Big Brown is the best horse they have seen and can not be beaten, others say it is just too quick of a turn around to run another race (2 weeks) for these young horses. Recapturetheglory, who finished 5th, at the Derby behind Big Brown was scheduled to race, but was with drawn due to fever and will not risk further sickness or injury to try and catch Big Brown. Gayego, may be the only real threat that Big Brown would face in the Preakness after he got off to a bad start in the Derby and finished 17th out of 20.


Other contenders to Big Brown’s race towards the first Triple Crown in 30 years are Behindatthebar, Kentucky Bear, and Macho Again. Of those three many feel that Behindatthebar is the closest competition that Big Brown will face. He did win his last start just before the Derby, winning the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland , but was purposely kept out of the Derby. His trainer, Todd Pletcher has said, “it was too soon for him to come back (for the Derby), I am much happier with these 4 weeks off to get ready for the Preakness.” The other MAJOR area for concern, especially for me is that the only other starts of Behindthebar’s young career have all come on synthetic tracks, never racing in a major stakes race on a dirt track. As we all found out in the Derby, the previous synthetic track horses did not fair well.

K of HK stables says:
The Preakness is going to be a race for second place. Desormeaux can run BIG BROWN in reverse and he’ll still win by three lengths. GAYEGO is the only derby horse to take on the challenge at Pimlico on Saturday and I don’t know that this colt has what it takes to pull it out. I’m not going to put too much time in trying to handicap the Preakness because I’m that unimpressed with the contenders and I’m just that confident BIG BROWN will completely clobber these horses. I don’t remember the last time I used the word “clobber”, but this is as good of an occasion as any to put it in my vocabulary. I’ll admit, I wasn’t too excited about BIG BROWN’s starting position in the Derby, but I did know this horse was good. The fact that he won from that post, and in such amazing fashion, proves (affirms if you will) win the Triple Crown. For those of you who don’t get my pun, AFFIRMED was the last horse to accomplish this feat, way back in ’78. I am not nearly as excited for the Preakness as I was for the Derby but any horse race is an exciting horse race….except harness racing I guess. YUCK!

Harness Racing!!

Current odds for the Preakness on Saturday, the 17th (after post positions were announced):
Post/Horse/ML Odds
1 Macho Again 20-1
2 Tres Borrachos 30-1
3 Icabad Crane 30-1
4 Yankee Bravo 15-1
5 Behindathebar 10-1
6 Racecar Rhapsody 30-1
7 Big Brown 1-2
8 Kentucky Bear 15-1
9 Stevil 30-1
10 Riley Tucker 30-1
11 Giant Moon 30-1
12 Gayego 8-1
13 Hey Byrn 20-1

H of HK stables wagering guide for the Preakness:
Win bet: Big Brown
There is no doubt this horse will win….unless…..never mind he WILL win

Exacta Box bet: Big Brown with ALL as well as ALL with Big Brown
HK touched on this last week following the Derby as our new favorite betting option when there is a clear favorite, and then the outside chance that a long short could win (great for big races and sloppy tracks). You are placing 2 bets, one as the main bet and one is sometimes referred to as the “hedge bet” or covering you’re a** if the favorite you pick does not come in first he can still come in second and you would win the bet.

The theory behind the bet is that you have a favorite, Big Brown, and then a bunch of other longer shots who could win. Ultimately, with the bet you are hoping that any other horse comes in first and Big Brown will come in second, this will pay out much higher than the flip side of the bet.

The cost of the bet will be a bit higher than a traditional bet, such as win, place or show, but you are betting multiple combinations of scenarios, as long as the favorite you have picked comes in first or second.

Win/Place/Show bet: Kentucky Bear
I placed this same bet on Eight Belles at the last minute before the Derby and made a decent return. If the final odds drop to 12-1 or 10-1 on this horse, I may rethink this, but for now I will be putting a little change on the horse named after Krebs if he moved to live closer to the Derby.

Example ticket of the Exacta bet explained above

K of HK stables wagering guide for the Preakness:
As for bets, I’m with Hill on this, I’m going to place BIG BROWN over the field and hope the long shot places. I’m also going to take the Field over BIG BROWN (now that sounds like a porn flick), and secretly hope that somebody edges him by a nose. My choice for the sleeper is TRES BORRACHOS. Until about five minutes ago, I didn’t know what a borracho was but I found out it means drunk in Spanish. Hopefully the trainer gives him some Corona before post time. The U.S. Treasury tells me that my economic stimulus check will be deposited by Friday, if so, look out Canterbury!

That’s it folks. Not much else to be said. The Preakness is not the most exciting of the three Triple Crown races, but as stated, you should watch; you may be witnessing history in the first Triple Crown winner in 30 years. GO BIG BROWN!! RIP EIGHT BELLES, you are with us at every race.

-HK stables.


H of HK Stables said...

A few side notes:

-Secret Force update: SF was scheduled to arrive in MN last week with Ness Racing Stables, but was left in Tampa due to a minor ankle injury. Our trainer, Jamie Ness, is taking the necessary precautions with the Force to make sure we have a long and fruitful summer at Canterbury. We will keep you updated as we find out more.

-Members of HK stables as well as Blue Water Stables will be in attendance at Canterbury tonight and this weekend. Come and find us for some friendly wagering tips or to just chat about the ponies.

-Congrats are going out today to TKOT reader Anne P for her hard work and graduation from PA school. Way to go Anne!!

Hof HK stables said...

Hmmm..... BIG BROWN over the field paid at least 1 TK member...U are welcome for the wagering advice. HK ...making dreams comes true race by race

Dogg said...

Show me the money!