Friday, April 25, 2008

Voices from a Stranger

As promised, here is another NFL draft "Voices from a Stranger" article. As you know, this is written by a reader and not the three TKOT writers. If you'd like to write a piece for the blog, shoot us an email at Anyways, here is the mock draft we've all been waiting for! This of course comes from "The Bag." Along with writing mock drafts, "The Bag" likes a cold beer(s), a good argument and telling Canada fishing resort managers that he'll take a shit in their boat. Enjoy!

Mock Draft 3.0

Well here is a final mock draft. Once again, I’m no expert but I’ve probably read 100+ versions of mock drafts the last couple of months and here is what I think of the prospects and where they end up.

Overall this draft is incredibly deep and should offer great value in the first three rounds; Which is the main reason I hate the Jared Allen trade. This draft isn’t top heavy, but does have a lot of late first-second round guys who could be very, very good. And those guys will last into round 3. We completely overpaid for Allen and Rick Speilman just got plain out-negotiated. With that being said here we go.

1. Miami- Jake Long OT Michigan
Previous Mock: Chris Long
Long signed this week with Miami so I know I got one right in round one. It makes sense considering the draft picks of Ronnie Brown, Ted Ginn Jr. and John Beck the last couple of years. None of them can perform without a solid line in front of them. Long should be a good one.

2. St Louis – Chris Long DE Virginia
Previous Mock: Jake Long
St. Louis played in the 3-4 for the second half of the year and looks to be moving to the 3-4 full time. Chris Long played and dominated in the 3-4 in college. Why not get a guy who already can play off the edge in a 3-4. He is smart and a great athlete, (you don’t see that much anymore). I think he’s the guy, if Jake Long is there they take him, but in this mock he’s gone. I heard a rumor of McFadden going here with Steven Jackson in the last year of his contract. But how do you let Steven Jackson walk. I don’t think McFadden goes here.

3. Atlanta – Matt Ryan QB Boston College
Previous Mock: Matt Ryan
Matty Ice is going to be good. I don’t know about great, but he’s going to be good. The Falcons are in a very unique draft situation. On one hand they should take a QB to end the Vick debacle, but on the other hand can anyone live up to the pressure of being the QB to replace Vick. It’s a tough situation for anyone to go into. I have seen the Falcons taking Glenn Dorsey in many mock drafts but I’m just not that high on him. DT’s are tough to grade out (as are QB’s) but I think with Dorsey’s injuries there is a lot of risk. I think a lot of teams are acting interested in hope for someone to trade up to get him. This draft is loaded with good prospects, but not ultra top heavy. I think McFadden and Jake Long are the only two “true” top 5 picks. But there is probably 15 typical “Top 10” picks.

4. Oakland – Darren McFadden RB Arkansas
Previous Mock: Darren McFadden
Who are the Raiders fooling thinking Justin Fargas is going to be the man next year. How do you pass on McFadden after his college career? We all know the Raiders don’t give a shit about character. (See: Randy Moss and Warren Sapp) Al Davis can’t pass up McFadden’s legit 4.3 speed. He’ll be compared to All Day a lot, but it’s not a fair comparison. Peterson is bigger and more powerful and McFadden is more elusive. Think Jim Brown vs. Barry Sanders. The differences aren’t that severe but you get the picture. Either way both are going to be studs and I still think McFadden is the best prospect in the draft.

5. Kansas City – Glenn Dorsey DT LSU
Previous Mock: Glenn Dorsey
This is the last of my picks not changing since the last mock, I promise. But I think Dorsey is the Chiefs guy here. I think if any of my top 3 fall here that’s who they want but at this juncture they simply take the best player available (according to the masses, like I said I’m not high on Dorsey). The Chiefs are a long way from being good and they need to take best player available, I hope for their sake that Jake Long or Matt Ryan falls, but it looks unlikely. To be honest I think that the Bengals trade up to this pick and take either Dorsey or Ellis, but we’ll see.

6. New York Jets – Vernon Gholston DE Ohio State
Previous Mock: Calais Campbell
So a couple of months ago I wrote that I thought Calais Campbell would shoot up draft boards but boy was I wrong. He did the exact opposite with his 16 bench reps at the combine. It’s crazy how much a guy can gain or lose at the combine but Gholston had a monster combine and now projects ultra high. He smells a little bit of Mike Mamula to me, but he did produce at a top level at Ohio State. He fits perfect in a 3-4 and could team up with newly acquired Calvin Pace to form a pretty good linebacking core.

7. New England Patriots – Leodis McKelvin CB Troy
Previous Mock – Kenny Phillips
So Phillips was another guy I projected to shoot up draft boards and has done the exact opposite. Nice call Kent. Regardless I still think the Patriots go DB. They have other needs, OL and LB, but losing Asante Samuel is a big hit. I know everybody thinks the Patriots will just dip into the well but this isn’t college, where the good teams just re-load. This is the NFL with salary cap and roster requirements. The Pats well is dry at DB and I think they take the best one available. Actually I think they trade out of this pick to get more draft picks (Classic New England) But it’s hard to project that and I’ll go with McKelvin.

8. Baltimore Ravens – DT Sedrick Ellis USC
Previous Mock: Brian Brohm
The Ravens would love if Matt Ryan falls to them here but they are so far away from being good and they have to take best available. They would love to trade out of this pick if Ryan goes before this but at this point they have to take best available player and that is Ellis. I like him more than Dorsey and think he’ll be a monster in this league.

9. Cincinatti – Ryan Clady OT Boise State
Previous Mock: Sedrick Ellis
The Bengals faithful will boo this pick as they have a lot of needs, especially on D. I think they trade up to ensure getting Ellis but you never know. If they get stuck at 9 I think they make their offensive line better and Clady should do the trick.

10. New Orleans – Keith Rivers OLB USC
Previous Mock: Mike Jenkins
If Rivers is here New Orleans would be elated. I think they have to go D with this pick. I still think Jenkins and CB is a possibility but they need help at LB as well. Rivers would be a big boost to this weak D.

11. Buffalo – Limas Sweed WR Texas
Previous Mock: Limas Sweed
This is a tough one for me. I really don’t think the Bills will take Limas Sweed, but I think they should. They need a receiver and I have a feeling this guy could be the next Roy Williams. He is a solid receiver that could create matchup nightmares on the other side of Lee Evans. I know Devin Thomas is the new sexy WR pick, but you heard it here first: Sweed will be the best WR from this draft. If they don’t go Sweed or Thomas look for them to go CB.

12. Denver Broncos – Chris Williams OT Vanderbilt
Previous Mock: Vernon Gholston
This is a very good OT draft and while the Broncos usually like to take lineman later in the draft they need D line and O line help bad. I think they go with whichever OT they have rated highest. Williams was Cutler’s left tackle in college and should be a good solid LT in the pros.

13. Carolina Panthers – Joe Flacco QB Delaware
Previous Mock: Sam Baker
So I know Flacco is projected as a second round pick but I think that’s bullshit. This guy is big with a rocket and screams Ben Rothlesberger. Carolina can’t rely on Jake Delhomey too much longer, and this is a reach but I’m going out on a limb here and predict Flacco here.

14. Chicago Bears – Rashard Mendenhall RB Illinois
Previous Mock: Andre Woodson
The in-state product would officially put an end to the Cedric “I guess I’m not Ricky Williams” Benson era. But who are we kidding, that should have ended two years ago. Woodson’s stock has fallen off the earth, but I think the Bears should go QB sometime early in this draft, and Woodson makes an intriguing second, third or fourth round pick.

15. Detroit Lions – Derrick Harvey DE Florida
Previous Mock: Ryan Clady
Harvey is the third best pass rush option in this draft behind Chris Long and Gholston. If he lasts until 15 the Lions will be elated. They need to take best player available and Harvey is probably the best option.

16. Arizona Cardinals – Dominick Rodgers-Cromartie CB Tennesse State
Previous Mock: Kentwan Balmer
The Cardinals are not in familiar territory outside of the top 10 but they’ll have to give it a whirl this year. Rodgers-Cromartie helped his stock huge at the senior bowl and followed it up with a good combine. In my mind he looks a bit small to be an impact corner but he certainly has the speed running a 4.33 40 at the combine.

17. Kansas City Chiefs – Branden Albert OT/OG Virginia
Previous Mock: Reggie Smith to the Vikings
For the record we gave up way too much for Jared Allen. The guy is good, but a 1st and two thirds are you kidding me? We aren’t super bowl material and I would rather build through the draft and take Brian Brohm with this pick, but who the fuck am I? Branden Albert has been soaring up draft boards and will go really really high. Probably a lot higher than this at 17 but I think this is about the area he should go in. He’ s good but inexperienced at tackle playing only 2 games there in college, but now all of the sudden everyone thinks he going to be an instant impact left tackle??

The Vikings 1st round pick this year, Jared Allen.

18. Houston Texans – Aqib Talib CB Kansas
Previous Mock: Aqib Talib
If Mendenhall were to fall I think he’s the pick otherwise they’ll go with the top rated CB on their board. Their still not good, I can’t believe they are picking this low to be honest with you. Still could use help on the OL as well.

19. Philadelphia Eagles – Phillip Merling DE Clemson
Previous Mock: Malcolm Kelly
Merling is a big DE out of Clemson and should be a solid DE in the pros. Nothing spectacular, but decent. A lot of mocks have the Eagles going WR here, but I don’t see it. Yes they need WR’s but I think they can wait until round two to get either Kelly or any other of the middle of the pack receivers this draft is loaded with.

20. Tampa Bay Bucs – Brian Brohm QB Louisville
Previous Mock: DeSean Jackson
So this one is a bit of a surprise pick as well, but I would have loved to see the Vikings take him at 17. This guy would have been a top 5 pick last year, and he actually had a pretty good senior season, even though for some reason the powers to be don’t think so. The Bucs don’t really have a long term solution at QB and I think Brohm is a better pick than any receiver they take.

21. Washington Redskins – Devin Thomas WR Michigan State
Previous Mock: Mario Manningham
The Skins could use a big WR and Thomas fits the bill. The guy has prototypical size and speed, but he wasn’t a top producer at Michigan State and that to me sounds like Troy Williamson. That guy could fly too.

22. Dallas Cowboys – Mike Jenkins CB Central Florida
Previous Mock: Leodis McKlevin
The last of the big 4 corners I think the Cowboys would be elated if he fell here. They need CB’s even though they traded for Pacman. He was traded from the Titans for a fourth round pick, similar to the Randy Moss trade. Yet we think it’s OK to give up a 1st AND two thirds. Fucking ridiculous.

23. Pittsburgh Steelers – Jonathon Stewart RB Oregon
Previous Mock: Jeff Otah
Willie Parker is good, but you can always use depth at RB. Stewart was a stud at Oregon and figures to be a big powerful back in the pros.

24. Tennessee Titans – Malcolm Kelly WR Oklahoma
Previous Mock: Keith Rivers
Kelly hurt his stock a little with a couple of 4.6 40’s but prior to that he was the top rated receiver in the draft. His 40 cost him some money but is going to make a team very happy because on the field he is legit. Big and strong he could be a very productive pro receiver.

25. Seattle Seahawks – Felix Jones RB Arkansas
Previous Mock: Jonathon Stewart
No more Alexander means the Cocks need a RB. McFadden’s back up in my eyes isn’t an every down back but he’ll probably go higher than he should and here is where I have him.

26. Jacksonville – Kentwan Balmer DT North Carolina
Previous Mock: Derrick Harvey
The Jags are completely re-figuring their D-line and I believe that’s where they go here. Balmer is big and probably best suited to play end on a 3-4 but he gives the Jags versatitlity and depth.

27. San Diego Chargers – Kenny Phillips S Miami
Previous Mock: Phillip Merling
Phillips has seen his stock slip even though he is still the top rated S in the draft. I think a stud safety from Miami is too tempting to pass up for a team that needs one thing...a safety.

28. Dallas Cowboys – DeSean Jackson WR Cal
Previous Mock: Felix Jones
Jerry Jones loves speed almost as much as Al Davis, and he loves showtime. Jackson should bring both. He is fast, but I think he’s a #3 receiver and a good return man. Maybe for the Cowboys that’s worth a first round pick?

29. San Francisco 49ers – Quentin Groves DE Auburn
Previous Mock: James Hardy
Groves is a prototypical passrusher in a 3-4. This guy has a chance to be one of the steals of the draft. He has a pedestrian season and hasn’t done much to improve his stock, but this guy could be a better 3-4 OLB than Vernon Gholston.

30. Green Bay Packers – Chad Henne QB Michigan
Previous Mock: John Carlson
I know have 4 QB’s in the first round which you won’t see in any other mock. I think the Pack has a legit shot of taking a QB here and if Brohm is there I think they take him for sure. They don’t know exactly what they have in Aaron Rodgers and they need a better backup plan than Daunte “Get that Lambeau Roll on” Culpepper.

31. No Pick

32. New York Giants – Dan Connor LB Penn State
Previous Mock: Dan Connor
The “cough cough” Superbowl champs can take the best player available. Yeah right they need help at S and at LB. I see Connor from Linebacker U having a solid career.

Viking’s second round pick – Some OT we’ve never heard of.

That’s all I have. Going to be a disappointing draft to watch with the Vikes having one pick in the first 24 hours of the draft. I see them going OT or Secondary. I would love to see them go QB if one of the four in my first round falls to them in the second round. If John David Booty is their in the 4th I say we grab him too. I would have loved to seen two Fighting Irish with our third round picks in John Carlson and Tom Zbikowski. But we potentially gave up those two guys and Brian Brohm for Jared Allen. Go figure.

The Bag


Fuzz said...

Bag, good work again. That's three mocks that we're grateful for. Thanks for writing this again!

On the Jared Allen deal, I think it's a good deal on both ends. The Chiefs didn't get ripped off but I don't think we did either. DE's are tough to develop and we got a proven one in a position that was a need for us. With the Williams Wall, our D-Line is going to be real good for the next 2-3 years. Plus, Kevin Williams and Allen are young, so they'll be on our line for years to come. I'm taking this out of the Tribune today but here are our DE's we've drafted in the first three rounds since Chris Doleman:

Gerald Robinson, Al Noga, Marion Hobby, Robert Harris, Fernando Smith, Derrick Alexander, Stalin Colinet, Dimitrius Underwood, Michael Boireau, Darrion Scott, Kenechi Udeze, Erasmus James.

I'll take Allen over all of those guys. We traded developing draft picks for an established pass rusher. If you think the Vikings aren't that close, then yeah, we probably shouldn't have done it. But, I think we're the favorites to win the North now and are the third best team in the NFC behind Dallas & the Giants.

3rd rounders are hit or miss with about 4-5 only hitting per year. It's a crap-shoot. I also like that it's only a one year commitment. We have all of our draft picks next year. They, as in the Vikings, think they are close and are making a run for it. Is it risky? Yes. But it's a change in this town for once! I like that we're going for it! If it doesn't work, then we start over but at least we tried.

Oh yeah, T-Jack better not fuck this up...

Mr. Cue said...

Color me confused: if the Dolphins have already locked up a contract with Jake Long, how could he fall to either St. Louis at #2 or Kansas City at #5 as mentioned in the article? Is there a way this could actually happen that I don't know about?

Kent said...

My Bad Cue. This can't happen. I wrote half of the article on Monday before Long had signed. I changed the #1 pick, but not the rest of the write-ups. Sorry buddy. I would have probably not gotten a very good grade from you, huh? Oh yeah and I was half in the bag when I wrote the first...and second half for that matter.

Fuzz said...

Leave it to the teacher d-bag to point out your mistakes. It's non-stop with him. Or maybe Bill Parcells is that good and does have something up his sleeve?

Mr. Cue said...

Leave it to you to imply sarcasm when it isn't there, Captain Half Day. I honestly didn't know if it was a possibility for that Long deal to fall through. I thought maybe since he hadn't technically been drafted by Miami yet that there was an outside chance that something could go wrong.

Believe me, I'm not going to complain when a loyal reader gives us 3 separate mock drafts. The three of us yahoos know very little about college football, so having an informed opinion is a great thing.